A Role-Playing Game Resurgence is on the Horizon

The popularity of the “retro-clone” RPG games (those that attempt to emulate the orginal D&D game or the Basic/Expert/Master/etc. D&D boxed sets or even 1st edition AD&D) makes me think that the RPG hobby isn’t dieing, but instead it is about to become stronger than ever.

Why? The D&D games mentioned above were the first widely produced and played RPG games.  Those gamers are now in their 50s in many cases. (Say if someone was 20 in 1979, that person would be 50 now. Someone who was 25 in 1975 would be 59 now.)  Now that some of them are retiring (retirement age is 66 for those people, but some retire early due to pensions or better savings) they are looking for what to do with their time.  Furthermore, retirement isn’t a prerequisite for this resurgence.  As these gamer’s kids grow up and move out, they will have more time to do what they want. Even those that are a bit younger who still have school age kids may be able to play with those kids, although that has probably been happening for many years now.

Some of these people never left the hobby.  They will be able to play weekly (or more often) instead of monthly as before.  Some of these people that stopped playing may be looking back at what they enjoyed doing with their free time when they had free time and they may pick the hobby back up.  Other people that never played may be encouraged to play by friends who never gave it up.  Heck, down the line there could be retirement (“active adult”) communities with sections dedicated to gamers just like there are some already dedicated to golf, for example. (Ok, maybe that’s extreme, but the principle is the same.)

Another parallel example to this is the popularity of baseball cards.  Their popularity shot through the roof in the mid and late 1980s as the kids of the 1950s began retiring and the kids of the 1960s and 1970s shared the hobby with their children.

Which games or styles or mechanics will be popular in the resurgence?  Will these gamers want exact copies of the games they loved when they were younger? Or do they want games that are true to the originals but with minor updates as most of the retro-clones attempt? As time progresses will there be retro-clones of 2nd edition D&D? (We’re already seeing variations of 3.0/3.5 D&D due to the Open Game License.) Or will they want the latest and greatest games? Whether it is a game heavily influenced by computer games or an RPG with some streamlined on innovative mechanics…

I think it will probably be some of each of these.  Some of these returning gamers (and those with more time to game) will go to the latest releases and current versions of D&D, GURPS, Hero, as well as brand new RPGs.  But many (maybe more) will go back to the games and versions they remembered most fondly and look at those games again and their clones and pick them up.  Maybe they will even customize the games more or detail/create game settings more than they did before.

So for the sake of argument, if the market is currently (or maybe this represents last year before more and more retro-clones started appearing):

0E D&D: 1x, B/X/M: 1x, 1E: 1x, 2E: .5X, 3E: 8X, 4E: 8X, GURPS: 3X, Hero: 2X, MM: 2X, etc.

(Where each entry represents the official game and the close variations.  X is some number whether it is 1000, 5000, 10000 or 100000 active gamers–If you have a good source for numbers like these, post a comment. If I left out your favorite game system or didn’t give your favorite as high a number as you would, I apologize but this is just a simple example and the main point is the overall rise in numbers as shown next.) Given those example numbers and caveats, maybe in another year or two we’ll see something like:

0E D&D: 3x, B/X/M: 3x, 1E: 3x, 2E: 1.5X, 3E: 9X, 4E: 9X, GURPS: 4X, Hero: 3X, MM: 3X, etc.

And maybe shortly after that games that were more popular in the late 80s/early 90s such as 2nd Edition D&D will see a greater rise.

What does this all mean?  There should be more gamers in the coming years. But they will be spread out among more games and versions of games, so no one game system will have a majority of gamers.  Even D&D won’t see the majority of its active players playing the latest version.  Just as many will be playing the other versions.  It is even possible that just as many may play any one prior version.

Will people be spending more on games?  I don’t think so.  First, many of these players will already have the games they want to play.  Maybe they’ll test a new product here or there, buy a generic setting book once in a while, maybe an adventure or other resource book that seems interesting and adaptable if it isn’t designed for that person’s preferred game, but this won’t match how much they spent when they were younger.  Furthermore, there is so much on the internet that is free.  Even ignoring piracy, there are free trials of game companies’ flagship new games, many of the retro-clones are free, so many fan websites offer quality free content or at least content that may give a player ideas for creating something he thinks will be higher quality, and as more and more game content goes to pdf the pdfs are cheaper than printed books.

That isn’t to say people won’t spend money on these things.  There is still a chance that a free trial version of a game will impress someone enough to buy it, or that players who don’t like pdfs will want the printed book or some people with extra money will buy resource books even if they only see one decent idea to use on the cover.  But with the abundance of other resources, there will be more competition for these dollars and in some cases people will be content with what they can find for free.  (The same is true throughout the entertainment industry–new movies have to compete with rentals and pay per view and free movies on TV, new TV shows have to compete with TV shows on “classic” channels and TV shows on DVDs, new music has to compete with the Beatles, Elvis, and other classics and free radio, new computer games have to compete against classics and free web games, etc.  And all of these have to compete against each other.)

And again that’s ignoring the notion that people can get even more for free through piracy–although I personally believe most people (except for a relative few completionists who want a copy of everything even though they’ll use maybe 1% of it and a very small minority who don’t recognize the work put into these products) do want to stay legal.

Where can gaming companies make money?  If there isn’t already enough of a market for a company’s current rulebooks, sourcebooks, adventures, etc. (or that is shrinking) I think companies should move in these directions:

  • Where legally possible, port sourcebooks and adventures to multiple game systems.  As shown above, more gamers are going to be out there (if they aren’t starting already) so while it may not have been cost effective to publish two or more versions of a product, revisit the sizes of those fan-bases to see if that has changed.
  • If multiple versions of products can’t be published, put together conversion documents on your web site and promote that fact on the cover of your product.
  • Offer deluxe versions of games.  One thing not discussed so far is where local game stores fit into all of this.  One thing publishers should do to keep them in business (and therefore help bring in new players through them and give some players a place to play) is to include special goodies that aren’t easy to print at home in your products.  Here are some examples: a poster-sized map for a game setting, coin tokens printed on heavy cardboard, cardboard dungeon tiles,  a DM screen customized for the game’s rules or for that particular adventure, a miniature related to the product, cardboard stand-ups for the creatures or people in the game/adventure, some special play pieces or mini-game related to a puzzle in the game.  The pdf version will be cheaper, but give people a reason to spend the extra money beyond just the feeling of the book’s professional printing.
  • Move into some advice books. Some gamers may want to customize their games or settings.  Tell them how to best swap in a different magic system or the pros and cons to changing a race’s features, for example.  Describe how to best port the ideas in your game rules into other game systems

What about local game stores?  Aside from working with game companies to sell deluxe version of pdf games (as mentioned above) here are some other ideas, although some forward thinking game stores may be doing some of these):

  • Have a decent sized play area.  Consider charging for that, but give them something in return.  Maybe a matching gift certificate.  If the store charges $5 for a table for 4 hours, give a $5 gift certificate.  In this way the table is free, but the store ensures the people aren’t free-loading. (Maybe this is waived if the group includes some regulars.) Or maybe the $5 includes a round of sodas.
  • Get a print on demand printer.  Gamers can buy pdfs or bring their own and get them printed for a small fee. The printing will look better than a home printer.  This may be a couple of years away.
  • Promote game demos.  Most stores should be doing it already, but it is surprising that some don’t.
  • Promote what game products are coming out in the next week or month.  Maybe hand out a flier with a synopsis of each.  Include links to free trials of the games.
  • Promote taking orders for games not in stock.
  • Put together packages.  If an adventure’s major villain is a particular creature or two, offer miniatures that match those creatures and give a small discount on the package.  Or if someone buys a core book or setting book, offer an adventure or related book for that game/setting at a discount.

Do you think a resurgence is coming?  Why or why not?  What advice would you have for game companies?  For local stores?  Post a comment or link to this from your blog.

Note: The last half of this article could be expanded upon, especially by those with more direct experience. I’m not a game retailer or publisher.  I’ve simply had a few articles published, write more articles for this venture, and I’ve written a couple of game-related software tools. But the resurgence is a trend I think we can look forward to.

1 Comment on “A Role-Playing Game Resurgence is on the Horizon

  1. Man, that’s a lot to chew on. Right now, I think I’m going to digest and formulate my own thoughts on it. Nice post!